Fuel Price War Erupts in Nigeria: What Is Really Going On?

Fuel Price War in Nigeria: Dangote Fights Back as Importers Slash Prices

In what feels like a fuel-powered showdown, Nigeria’s petrol market is experiencing an unexpected twist, importers have taken the fight directly to the doorstep of Africa’s richest man, Alhaji Aliko Dangote. In a move that’s sending ripples through the oil and gas industry, petrol prices offered by independent importers have dipped below those set by the much-celebrated Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The irony is hard to miss. Just months after the Dangote refinery, the largest single train refinery in the world, began its much-anticipated supply of petroleum products, it is now facing price undercutting from the same importers it was expected to replace. With some depots now selling petrol as low as ₦815 per litre, compared to Dangote’s ₦820, the battle for supremacy in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector is officially on. While consumers may rejoice at falling pump prices, behind the scenes, a tug-of-war is escalating between advocates of free-market competition and those calling for protectionist measures to shield indigenous refiners.

Competition or Cannibalism? Dangote Raises Alarm

At the center of the storm is Aliko Dangote himself, a man who’s spent billions to build Africa’s answer to Big Oil and who now feels his refinery is under siege. Speaking at a recent event hosted by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NUPRA) in Abuja, Dangote was unequivocal in his message: imported fuel is killing local refining.

He accused fuel importers of “dumping” the practice of selling products at rock bottom prices, sometimes even below production costs and warned that some of the products entering Nigeria wouldn’t even make it past regulatory checks in Europe or North America. “We are now facing increased dumping of cheap, often toxic petroleum products, some of which are blended to substandard levels that would never be allowed in Europe or North America,” Dangote stated bluntly.

It gets worse. According to Dangote, many of the fuels flooding Nigeria are sourced from Russian refineries taking advantage of post-Ukraine sanctions. These refineries sell at discounted prices because of global price caps and importers are lapping them up. The result? Crude oil processed under normal pricing frameworks, like at the Dangote refinery, suddenly becomes less competitive. “Discounted petroleum products produced in Russia or with discounted Russian crude find their way to Africa, severely undercutting our local production,” he lamented. “This has created an unlevel playing field in most African countries.”

The Other Side: Importers Embrace the Free Market

But not everyone sees the importers’ price drop as villainy. To some, it’s the natural outcome of a liberalised market, the very thing the Nigerian government championed when it removed fuel subsidies and opened the downstream sector to full competition.

Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), is one of those voices. “Depot owners are dropping their petrol prices. Some are selling at ₦815, some at ₦817, while Dangote is still at ₦820. NNPC hasn’t even adjusted yet,” Ukadike noted in a conversation with The PUNCH.

To him, this isn’t sabotage, it’s capitalism in action. “This is the beauty of market liberalisation,” he emphasized. “That is why we opined that the President should not ban anybody from importing petroleum products. Nobody should be stopped. The competition will regulate the pricing.” He did, however, acknowledge concerns about product quality, adding that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is there to ensure only clean, quality fuel enters the market.

Still, some in the industry fear that the current price war could cause more damage than good. When importers push prices so low that even mega-refineries can’t keep up without selling at a loss, the long-term investment case for refining in Nigeria begins to falter.

What Lies Ahead: Fuel Freedom or Strategic Control?

For the average Nigerian motorist, the current price drop might seem like good news and in many ways, it is. In a country where fuel costs drive everything from transportation to food prices, a lower pump price can feel like oxygen. But the real question is: at what cost? Is this price drop the start of a sustainable, competitive market where consumers benefit and local industry thrives? Or is it the beginning of a race to the bottom, where cheaper and sometimes dirtier imports cripple home-grown innovation?

The Tinubu administration now finds itself at a crossroads. On one side is the promise of a free and open market; on the other, the risk of losing billions in private sector investment and watching Nigeria’s refining dreams collapse under the weight of foreign pressure. Should fuel imports be banned, as Dangote suggests? Or should the government find a middle ground regulating quality strictly while letting the price war play out?

Whatever happens next, one thing is clear: the battle for Nigeria’s fuel future has only just begun.