Trump Escalates Trade War: 100% Tariff on China Set for November or Sooner

Trump Declares 100% Tariff on China: A New Trade War Storm Brews Ahead of November

Just when it seemed the trade truce between the United States and China was holding steady, Donald Trump has dropped a bombshell, and the global markets are already feeling the tremors. In a fiery post on Truth Social this Friday, the former U.S. president and current political frontrunner announced that a new 100% tariff will be imposed on all goods from China, on top of the existing 30% tariffs, effective November 1 or sooner.

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“The United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” Trump wrote. “Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.” The announcement, equal parts shock and strategy, marks a massive escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, which had been relatively calm for months. With Trump now tying the move to Beijing’s growing restrictions on rare earth exports, the metals critical to making smartphones, electric vehicles, and defense systems, the world’s two biggest economies may be heading for another collision course.

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According to sources close to the administration, Trump’s latest outburst followed China’s decision to ramp up export controls on key rare earth materials, which are vital for American tech manufacturing. The restriction effectively puts pressure on U.S. supply chains that depend heavily on Chinese raw materials. This new tariff threat also coincided with Trump calling off a scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which was supposed to take place later this month in South Korea. That meeting was meant to smooth over lingering trade tensions, but now, it seems, all bets are off.

If Trump’s goal was to grab attention, he succeeded. Unfortunately for Wall Street, it wasn’t the good kind. Within hours of the announcement, U.S. markets tanked. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 878 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq, which is heavily reliant on tech stocks, tumbled a steep 3.5%. Investors have seen this movie before, and they didn’t like the ending last time. Memories of Spring’s tariff spike to 145% are still fresh, when the markets bled red, prices soared, and businesses scrambled to adjust supply chains. This time, the 100% tariff has reignited fears of another round of economic volatility and consumer price surges heading into the holiday season.

What’s Really at Stake

Let’s be clear—this isn’t just about tariffs or trade. It’s about leverage, technology, and control.

The U.S. relies on China for hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods each year, everything from electronics and furniture to clothing and machinery. While Mexico recently surpassed China as America’s top source of imports, China remains a key partner and competitor rolled into one. Trump’s strategy has long been to pressure American companies, especially in the tech and manufacturing sectors, to “bring it home”, move production back to U.S. soil. And though CEOs have resisted, many have appeased the administration by announcing billions in domestic investments, even if most of their actual production remains abroad.

So why crank up tariffs again? Analysts say Trump’s move may be part economic chess, part political theatre, a signal to voters that he’s ready to “get tough on China” once again as election season heats up.

Tariff History: From 145% to 30%… and Now Back Up Again

To understand how we got here, it helps to rewind the tape. Earlier this year, Trump’s administration shocked the global market by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to a staggering 145%, effectively creating an embargo on trade. After weeks of economic strain, he later introduced an exemption for electronics, lowering their tariff rate to 20%, a move that quietly acknowledged how deeply the tariffs were hurting U.S. consumers and manufacturers alike.

Then came the May trade thaw, when both nations agreed to lower tariffs:

• China dropped levies on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%,
• The U.S. reduced its tariffs from 145% to 30%.

Markets cheered, businesses exhaled, and a fragile optimism returned. But now, Trump’s sudden tariff threat, paired with new export controls, has shattered that calm. While tariffs dominate headlines, there’s a deeper layer to this economic chess match: technology and logistics.

Over recent months, Trump has moved to restrict U.S. tech sales to China, including critical exports like Nvidia’s advanced AI chips. Although some of those restrictions were later eased, the intent was clear, limit China’s access to next-gen tech. Not to be outdone, Beijing retaliated by targeting rare earth materials, those little-known but indispensable elements used in semiconductors, military systems, and clean energy tech. With both sides squeezing each other’s supply lines, industries on both continents are feeling the strain.

And the tension hasn’t stopped there. The U.S. recently proposed fees on goods shipped on Chinese-owned or operated vessels, a move China mirrored this week, targeting American ships in return. Trade, once a pillar of cooperation, has now turned into a game of economic chicken.

If history is any guide, neither leader is likely to blink first.

Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to weaponize tariffs make him a formidable, and unnerving, negotiator. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping has shown equal resolve, meeting every U.S. measure with swift and calculated retaliation. Both are aware that backing down could be seen as weakness, especially as domestic politics intensify on both sides.

But here’s where things get interesting: Trump’s freedom to impose tariffs “on a whim” might soon face legal limits. A Supreme Court case scheduled next month could determine whether presidents can continue to wield unilateral tariff power under current trade laws. If the court rules against him, Trump’s days of tariff shockwaves might be numbered. Xi, on the other hand, faces no such institutional constraints, a stark reminder of the difference between democratic checks and centralized authority.

As global markets brace for what could be another round of trade war escalation, analysts warn of ripple effects far beyond Washington and Beijing.

• Consumers could face higher prices on everyday goods—from smartphones to sneakers.
• Manufacturers may be forced to shift production, raising costs and supply chain chaos.
• Emerging markets could experience financial volatility as global investors retreat to safer assets.

The irony? Both economies need each other more than ever. Yet, for now, political optics seem to outweigh economic pragmatism.

Once again, the world’s two biggest economies are staring each other down, tariffs loaded and rhetoric high.

Trump’s latest tariff move might play well to his political base, but the economic fallout could be enormous, not just for the U.S. and China, but for the entire global economy. Markets hate uncertainty, and right now, uncertainty is the only thing that’s guaranteed. The trade war that never really ended may just be entering its next explosive chapter, and as always, the world is watching every move.